Phoenix Real Estate Market Update: List Prices Post Sharpest Drop in 9 Years (June 2026)

Published June 11, 2026 | Phoenix Metro Housing Market Update

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If you've been following the housing market headlines lately, you've probably seen the big one: home listing prices just posted their sharpest annual decline in at least nine years. It's an attention-grabbing stat, and it has a lot of people asking the same question — are sellers finally facing a reality check?

The short answer is that "the market" was never one single market, and the national headline doesn't tell you what's actually happening here in the Phoenix metro area. In this week's update I'm breaking down what the data shows nationally versus what it shows locally, why homes are coming off the market at near-record rates, what Dave Ramsey said about affordability, why Opendoor is back buying in Phoenix, where mortgage rates landed this week, and which Valley cities are still favoring sellers.

Let's get into it.

List prices are falling nationally — but Phoenix is telling a different story

According to Realtor.com, the national median listing price has now fallen for seven consecutive months. In May it dropped 2.4% year over year to $429,500 — the sharpest annual decline in their data going back to 2017.

Here's some helpful context before anyone panics: 2017 was roughly the last time we had a normal, near-balanced housing market across most of the country. After that, things went a little haywire. So when you see a stat described as "the highest" or "the lowest since 2017," it often just means the market is inching back toward normal rather than falling off a cliff.

Now, what about Phoenix specifically? This is where it gets interesting. When you look at the average list price per square foot for active listings in the Phoenix metro, we are not mirroring the national decline the way you'd expect:

• This time last year: $359/sq ft
• Today: $354/sq ft

That's a very slight dip year over year — nothing like the national headline suggests. When you zoom out further, current list prices per square foot are below 2024, roughly in line with 2022, and still above 2021 (when prices really started to take off). So yes, list prices have softened gradually over time, but Phoenix is not experiencing the dramatic drop the national numbers imply.

One important reminder: list price is not sale price. A home can take price reductions, go pending, and eventually close at a different number — and that figure doesn't account for seller concessions either. So $354/sq ft tells you where homes are listed, not necessarily where they're selling.

Why homes are coming off the market at near-record rates

Here's a trend worth paying attention to if you're thinking about selling. Sellers are pulling their homes off the market — "delistings" or cancelled listings — at near-record rates as buyers push back on higher prices.

Nationally, 5.8% of all U.S. home listings were taken off the market in April, tying for the highest share since March 2020, when the pandemic briefly froze the housing market. Before 2020, delistings were never this common.

In the Phoenix metro, the Cromford Report tracks cancelled listings per month (homeowners who decide "never mind, take it off the market"), and we've seen a clear uptick through 2026:

• Earlier in Q1: ~1,324
• Then 1,714
• Then 1,749
• Most recently: 1,836 cancelled listings per month

I'd bet this number climbs over the summer. But here's the nuance that matters: at the same time, demand is holding fairly flat and active listings are starting to come down slightly. If demand stays steady while inventory shrinks, sellers who price correctly and stay on the market may actually find the buyer activity they're hoping for.

It also raises the most common question I get: "What is my home worth?" I can give you a strong estimate based on comparable sales, your home's features, and what's happening in your specific area. But at the end of the day, a home is worth what a buyer is willing to pay — and what an agreeable seller will accept. That meeting of the minds is where a real sale price comes from. No matter what you want to list at, the market decides whether that number is realistic.

Dave Ramsey calls it "the most unrealistic real estate market in 100 years"

Dave Ramsey made waves recently by calling this "the most unrealistic real estate market in 100 years." Bold claim — and whether you love him or not, the affordability data behind it is worth understanding.

The headline figure: roughly 75% of U.S. homes are now considered unaffordable. A first-quarter 2026 analysis found that buying a $404,200 median-priced home with 20% down on a 30-year mortgage at 6.11% required an annual income of about $103,419 once typical taxes and insurance were included.

Interestingly, that's actually an improvement from the prior quarter — but as the report put it, "improved" doesn't mean "affordable." A lower mortgage rate helps, but it doesn't magically turn an unaffordable listing into a realistic one when prices, taxes, insurance, debt, and down payments are all part of the equation.

And that's really Ramsey's bigger point: affordability isn't just about home prices and interest rates. It's also about the debt buyers are already carrying — car loans, student loans, and credit card balances that eat into the income needed to qualify for a mortgage, save for a down payment, and cover the ongoing costs of ownership. He argues buyers should clear debt and rebuild financial flexibility before jumping in. The challenge is that for many people, this can feel like a hamster wheel they never get off — everything feels perpetually out of reach.

This is also why the market can show signs of improvement while plenty of buyers still feel locked out. A household earning $80,000 can be doing everything right and still fall short when the income needed for a median-priced home is north of $100,000.

But here's the local reality check: affordability is regionally dependent. Some markets are feeling the squeeze far more than others, and through it all, Phoenix metro home prices have stayed relatively stable — and in some areas even ticked up. The market is still moving. Buyers are still getting pre-qualified, and sellers are still accepting prices they're happy with. There are outliers on both ends, but in the middle, people are finding common ground and getting deals done every day.

Opendoor is back buying in Phoenix — and that's a signal

We haven't talked about Opendoor in a while — honestly, I hadn't seen one of their listing signs in a long time. But according to Yahoo Finance, Opendoor is buying and selling homes at the fastest rate since 2022, and they're back in Phoenix.

A few numbers that stood out:

• Their acquisition volume jumped 45% from Q4 2025.
• Recent cohorts (Oct–Jan) are selling faster than any comparable cohort since COVID.
• The share of homes they've held for 120+ days dropped from 33% down to 10%.

Opendoor's model is straightforward: they buy your home for cash, then flip and relist it. So them ramping up both buying and selling at this pace tells us the market is working well for flippers right now. (And sure enough — I spotted an Opendoor sign while driving around the Valley this week. They're back.)

Phoenix was one of Opendoor's original test markets, so it makes sense we're seeing the trend here too. Locally, Cromford data shows investor purchases at about 11.6% of the market last quarter — right in the normal 11–13% range we've seen the past couple of years (and well below the 19–21% we saw in 2021–2022). But iBuyer activity specifically is clearly trending up: Opendoor logged 91 purchases in the Phoenix metro in April, with both their purchases and sales on a clear upward trajectory.

If you've been seeing those Opendoor signs around town, you'll probably start seeing more of them.

Where mortgage rates stand this week

As of this week, the average 30-year mortgage rate is sitting at 6.67%. Rates have been fairly flat — CPI came in as expected and nothing dramatic moved the needle, so I'd expect the rest of the week to look similar.

As always, if you're in the thick of buying right now, talk with your mortgage lender to get a handle on what your specific rate looks like. Your scenario, credit, and loan type all matter.

One forward-looking note worth flagging: Better and Coinbase just issued their first crypto-backed conventional mortgage. It's an early signal, but I'd expect to see more of this kind of thing down the road.

Phoenix metro is technically a buyer's market — but your city matters more

Active listings in the Phoenix metro are starting to trend down, now sitting at 24,978 — below where we were this time last year, but still well above 2024 (about 17,000). If listings taper off over the summer while demand holds, we could see the market heat up a bit for sellers.

Now to the number that matters most: the Cromford Market Index (CMI). For anyone unfamiliar, a reading around 100 is considered normal, and anything under 90 indicates a buyer's market. Right now the overall Phoenix metro index sits at about 81.5, with demand about 14% below normal and supply about 6% above normal. So as a whole, Phoenix metro is technically a buyer's market.

But here's the part the national headlines completely miss — the Valley is a patchwork of very different submarkets:

Seller's markets (index over 110): Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Mesa, Glendale, Gilbert, Tempe, and Cave Creek

Balanced markets: Peoria and Goodyear

Buyer's markets (index under 80): Surprise, Sun City / Sun Tan Valley, Maricopa, Queen Creek, and Buckeye

In other words, a seller in Gilbert and a buyer in Buckeye are operating in genuinely different conditions right now. That's exactly why pricing and negotiation strategy should come from your city's data — not a national headline. Over the past week the metro index moved just 0.3%, so things are fairly quiet overall, which is pretty typical for summer.

What to watch heading into summer

A few things I'm keeping an eye on for the Phoenix housing market over the coming weeks:

• Whether active listings continue to trend down
• Whether demand holds steady where it is
• Whether cancelled listings (delistings) keep climbing

If inventory keeps shrinking while demand stays put, the balance could tip back toward sellers in more parts of the Valley.

The bottom line for Phoenix buyers and sellers

The national "sharpest drop in 9 years" headline is real — but it's not the Phoenix story. Locally, prices have softened only slightly, demand is steady, inventory is easing, and roughly half the Valley's cities still favor sellers. The most important takeaway: what's true for the national market may not be true for your zip code. Whether you're buying or selling, decisions should be built on your submarket's real-time data, not a one-size-fits-all headline.

Frequently asked questions

Is now a good time to buy a home in Phoenix? It depends on where you're looking and your financial picture. Phoenix metro is technically a buyer's market overall (CMI around 81.5), and cities like Surprise, Queen Creek, Maricopa, and Buckeye especially favor buyers right now. The best first step is getting pre-qualified with a lender so you know exactly what you can comfortably afford.

Are home prices dropping in Phoenix in 2026? Only slightly. The average list price per square foot is about $354 versus $359 a year ago — a modest dip, not the steep national decline you may be reading about. Sale prices have softened gradually over time, but Phoenix has stayed far more stable than many other U.S. markets.

Which Phoenix-area cities are seller's markets right now? Based on the latest Cromford Market Index, Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale, Phoenix, Paradise Valley, Mesa, Glendale, Gilbert, Tempe, and Cave Creek are all in seller's-market territory (index over 110).

What are mortgage rates in Phoenix right now? The average 30-year rate is about 6.67% this week and has been holding fairly flat. Your individual rate will depend on your credit, down payment, and loan type, so check with a lender for your specific number.

Why are so many sellers taking their homes off the market? Many sellers priced higher than buyers are willing to pay, so rather than reduce, they're cancelling their listings. Phoenix cancelled listings recently hit about 1,836 per month — but with demand holding and inventory easing, well-priced homes are still attracting buyers.

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Watch the full Phoenix market update

I cover all of this — the charts, the city-by-city breakdown, and the latest Cromford data — in this week's video. Watch the full Phoenix Real Estate Market Update here: [VIDEO LINK]

Thinking about buying or selling in the Phoenix metro? Whether you want a real, data-backed idea of what your home is worth or help figuring out what you can comfortably afford, I'm always happy to walk you through your options — no pressure, just real numbers and clear guidance. Reach out anytime, and I'll see you in next week's update.

Serving Phoenix, Scottsdale, Chandler, Tempe, Gilbert, Queen Creek, Mesa, Surprise, Peoria, Glendale, Avondale, Buckeye, Goodyear, and the greater Valley.