Phoenix Housing Market Update, June 2026: Are Home Prices Dropping?

So what is really going on in the Phoenix real estate market right now? This week I am breaking down price trends by price range, what is happening with seller concessions, how much buyer activity is actually out there, and where mortgage rates stand.

Here is the short answer for anyone wondering whether Phoenix home prices are dropping: it depends entirely on your price range. Homes under a million dollars have softened over the last few years, while the luxury space has kept climbing. Overall, the Valley is sitting in a balanced-to-buyer-favored market, which means demand is steady but buyers have real negotiating room. Let me walk you through the numbers.

Phoenix home prices are splitting by price range

The most important thing to understand about Phoenix prices in June 2026 is that there is no single answer. According to the Cromford Report, when you look at the 12-month moving average of price per square foot from 2023 to 2026, the trend changes dramatically depending on where a home falls in price.

Here is how the last three and a half years break down by price per square foot:

Phoenix price trends by range (12-month moving average $/sq ft, 2023 to 2026):

• Under $500,000: down about 7 percent since January 2023.
• $500,000 to $1 million: down about 1.5 percent. This is the biggest chunk of our market.
• $1 million to $3 million: up about 4 percent.
• Over $3 million: up about 17 percent.

In plain terms, the lower and middle of the market have given back value, while the luxury segment has gained. I have had past clients ask for an updated market analysis recently, and some who bought in the last few years are now sitting at or even slightly below what they paid, depending on whether they made significant upgrades. That is the honest reality below a million dollars right now. Above a million, the story flips and many owners have seen prices rise.

Seller concessions have become the norm in Phoenix

Price is only part of the picture. The other big signal is seller concessions, which is when a seller gives the buyer money toward closing costs, often to buy down their mortgage rate. It cannot be applied to a down payment, but it can cover things like closing costs and HOA transfer fees.

Nationally, Redfin reports that 46 percent of home sellers gave concessions in May, the highest share on record for that month. For comparison, that figure was 43 percent in May 2025, 37 percent in 2024, and 40 percent in 2023.

Phoenix is running even higher. As of June 2026, roughly 53.9 percent of closings in the last 30 days included some form of seller concession, and May came in around 54 percent. When our local number sits above the national average, it tells us the Phoenix market is a little softer than the country as a whole. Concessions are usually the first negotiating tool buyers reach for before prices themselves come down, so this is worth watching closely.

Buyer demand is actually holding up

Here is the part that might surprise you. Despite all the doom and gloom you hear, buyers are still active. The National Association of Realtors reported that contract signings rose nearly 4 percent last month, a late-spring uptick that we do not usually see this time of year. Their chief economist points to it as a sign of pent-up demand and buyers accepting mortgage rates above 6 percent as the new normal.

I am seeing the same thing locally. Listings under contract in the Phoenix metro have been elevated all year, running higher than the last two years at this time. Listings under contract simply means buyers are out there writing offers and sellers are accepting them, so it is a clean read on real demand. People are not frozen the way they were in 2008. They still need to buy and sell, and they are getting deals done.

Where Phoenix mortgage rates stand

Mortgage rates have stayed stubbornly high. The 30-year fixed has been averaging in the mid-6 percent range over recent weeks and is sitting around 6.6 percent right now. We were trending nicely back in February, briefly dipping to around 6 percent and even just under, but we have not seen those levels since. Affordability has tightened, and for some buyers that has been a real squeeze. For the buyers still in the market, many have simply decided this is what it takes and moved forward.

Who has the advantage right now, city by city

The Cromford Market Index, which I track every week, is a quick way to read supply and demand. A reading of 100 is considered normal, anything below 90 leans toward buyers, and anything above 110 leans toward sellers. Right now the overall index sits at 81.5, with demand at 85.1 (about 15 percent below normal) and supply about 4.4 percent above normal. That keeps the Valley as a whole in buyer-favored territory, though it has barely moved in weeks.

City by city, it is more of a patchwork. Several cities from Gilbert up to Fountain Hills are reading as seller's markets. Buyer's markets include Queen Creek, Buckeye, Maricopa, San Tan Valley, Surprise, and Goodyear, while areas like Peoria and Avondale are balanced. The average month-to-month shift was about 1 percent, slightly favoring sellers, largely because active listings have dipped as owners pull homes off the market for the summer. Less competition gives sellers a small edge when demand holds.

If you want a closer look, the contract ratio is helpful too. A few pockets are running hot, including Scottsdale 85255 and Phoenix 85037, while a handful of zip codes like 85013, 85014, and 85020 are cooler. One caution: some zip codes have very little inventory, so a single data point can skew the read. Always look at the actual sample size before drawing a conclusion.

What this means if you are buying

If you are shopping under a million dollars, you have more room than headlines suggest. It is reasonable to ask for seller concessions right now, since more than half of recent closings included them. Knowing which price segment and which city favor buyers can meaningfully change your strategy and your monthly payment.

What this means if you are selling

Pricing correctly from day one matters more than ever, especially below a million dollars where values have softened. Expect buyers to ask for concessions, and plan for them in your net proceeds. If your home is in the luxury range or in one of the stronger cities, you are in a better position, and lighter summer inventory may work in your favor.

Frequently asked questions about the Phoenix market

Are home prices dropping in Phoenix right now?

It depends on price range. As of June 2026, homes under $1 million have declined modestly over the last few years on a price-per-square-foot basis, while homes above $1 million have gained, with the luxury segment up the most.

Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Phoenix?

Overall the Valley leans buyer-favored, with the Cromford Market Index at 81.5 (below 90). But it varies by city, from seller's markets like Gilbert and Fountain Hills to buyer's markets like Queen Creek, Buckeye, and Surprise.

What are mortgage rates doing this month?

The 30-year fixed has been averaging in the mid-6 percent range and is sitting around 6.6 percent. Rates briefly touched near 6 percent in February but have stayed higher since.

Should I ask for seller concessions when buying in Phoenix?

In this market it is reasonable to. About 53.9 percent of Phoenix closings in the last 30 days included some form of seller concession, which can help cover closing costs or buy down your rate.

Is buyer demand really down in Phoenix?

Not as much as the headlines suggest. Listings under contract have run higher than the last two years all year, and national contract signings rose nearly 4 percent last month, a sign that demand is holding.

Thinking about buying or selling in the Phoenix area?

The market right now rewards strategy over guesswork, and the right move really does depend on your price range, your city, and your timing. If you want to talk through your options, book a strategy call with me and my team. Prefer to start with numbers? Send me a message for a custom market breakdown for your city or price range, and I am happy to put together an instant home value and net sheet if you are weighing a sale.

Caitlin McKeague, Associate Broker, Desert Dreamers Real Estate, brokered by Real. Serving Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and the surrounding Valley.