People are nervous about the housing market | Phoenix Real Estate Market Update

by Caitlin McKeague

Is the Phoenix real estate market really collapsing? A post going around Reddit claimed Phoenix is in "full collapse" — and in this week's market update, I'm breaking down the actual data to show you what's really happening.

Spoiler: it's not even close.

I'm walking through my favorite stats for keeping a pulse on the Phoenix metro market, including the Cromford Market Index (CMI) and what supply vs. demand is actually telling us right now. We'll compare today's numbers to the 2008 financial crisis and the last truly balanced market back in 2014 — and you'll see why context matters so much when you're reading scary headlines.

Here's what I cover this week:

Why the "Phoenix is collapsing" claim doesn't hold up against the data

Active listings today (~29,775) and how they compare to past years

Listings under contract rising above last year — what that signals about demand

Price cuts slowing down across the Valley

Sales-price-to-list-price ratio sitting around 97%

Seller concessions now at ~53% of closings (median ~$10K) and how that compares to 2014

Listing success rate at ~73%

Contract ratio broken down by price range — answering a viewer question from last week

Where mortgage rates landed this week (~6.61%) and what's driving the movement